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Betting the Right Number For Baseball Totals
When it comes to betting baseball totals, a little shopping can go a long ways. While most sportsbooks will have identical lines posted early in the day, that isn't always the case as more wagers start to come in and books make adjustments based on the wagers they accept. As game time approaches, bettors can occasionally find different numbers at different sportsbooks.
Because of the nature of baseball totals, sportsbooks will generally adjust the odds first before adjusting the number. An example would be a total that opens at 9.5 and the sportsbook receives some action on the over. Instead of raising the number to 10, the sportsbooks will typically shift the odds, so that bettors taking the over will be asked to lay -120 to bet the over and betters can take the under at even money. This is normally written as 9.5o-120.
If the sportsbook continues to get wagers on the over, it may make one more shift to 9.5o-125, but unlike hockey, where you will see totals such as 5o-140, sportsbooks typically won't raise the odds above -125. Some will eschew the -125 and change the number. But instead of raising the number to a straight 10, sportsbooks will use a number such as 10u-120, where under bettors are now asked to risk $120 to win $100.
An example would be the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Los Angeles Angels on June 21 in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game.
Sunday afternoon most sportsbooks had the total listed at 8.5o-120, but there were several books that had a total of 9u-120. The secret for bettors is to figure out which number to bet into.
In a sense, seeing different totals and odds posted on the same game is a bit like buying points when it comes to basketball or football games in that you can get a better number but you do risk more to wager into an advantageous number.
Having liked the under in the Angels game, it was a fairly easy decision to bet the 9u-120, as if the game fell on 9 the bet would be a push, while those wagering under 8.5 at even money would have a loss.
It isn't quite so easy to decide on the over in the example, however, as the difference between the two numbers is now the difference between a win and a push, instead of a push and a loss if the game were to fall on 9.
(Those betting over 8.5 would have a win if the game landed on 9, while those betting over 9 at even money would have a push.)
What bettors have to decide is if it's worth risking an extra 20-cents to bet over 8.5 (and lay -120) or bet over 9 at even money.
One other factor to take into consideration is that while the difference in the two totals is just a half-run, the bettor actually needs a difference of full run to win the wager, as they would push if the game falls on 9 and only win if it hits 10 runs. So essentially by wagering on over 8.5 instead of over 9, the bettor is receiving more actual value than just a half-run.
In football and basketball, buying a half-point will cost the bettor an extra 10-cents, meaning if Team A is favored by 10.5 and the bettor buys it down to 10 they will have to risk $12-to-$10, instead of the usual $11 to win $10.
Since baseball is much lower scoring than football or basketball, a half-run should, at least in theory, cost the bettor more, but it actually doesn't in the example we used above.
In the majority of cases, a bettor is probably wise to go ahead and lay the -120 to get the best of the number. It's almost a no-brainer in the difference between a push and a loss to take the better number and is usually the correct call in the difference between a push and a win. Sure, the bettor will lose a bit more on losing wagers, but that should be offset by the number of extra wins, especially if the bettor is proficient when it comes to handicapping baseball totals.
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Sports Betting - Introduction to Money Management
Probably the least understood aspect of successful sports betting is related to money management. Money management is just as important as handicapping when it comes to having a profitable season. Sheer odds will dictate that everybody will pick winning teams on occasion, but not everybody knows how to manage their money in a manner that will maximize profits or minimize losses.
The first ingredient to proper money management is to establish a fund strictly for wagering. More commonly referred to a bankroll, this fund should be money that you can afford to lose, and should not consist of the rent payment or your kid’s college tuition. If you can’t afford to lose, you have no business betting. It’s as simple as that. Wait until your financial situation improves to the point where you can afford to lose a bit of cash and jump in at that point. The NFL, Major League Baseball, or the NBA aren’t going anywhere and will still be around for you to wager on, whether if it’s next week or next year.
Once your bankroll is firmly established, you’re ready to begin planning your assault on the bookmaker and your first step is determining the amount of your wagers. The method favored by most sophisticated gamblers involves wagering a percentage of your bankroll on each bet. This method is more commonly known as the Kelly Criterion and nearly all successful money management plans will use some type of variation of Mr. Kelly’s work.
Kelly Criterion
In 1956, the Kelly Criterion was developed by Edward L. Kelly, a physicist with AT&T Bell Laboratories. Kelly’s original concept was developed for betting on thoroughbred horse racing, but is applicable to all types of gambling, including the stock market and blackjack.
Kelly’s method is a mathematical formula that gives the percentage of bankroll to be wagered on an event to maximize profits, based on the odds and the probability of winning the bet. The formula looks more complex than it actually is and can be stated in three simple steps.
1. Multiply the odds of the event by the probability of winning.
2. Subtract the probability of losing from the number obtained in the first step.
3. Take the number obtained in the second step and divide by the odds.
For demonstrative purposes, let’s assume we are a football bettor who has a 56% winning percentage over time and is comfortable using that figure as the expected winning probability for future bets.
1. The first step is to take our 56% and multiply it by 11/10, the odds we give on a football bet, so we get .56 * .91 = .509.
2. Since our odds of winning are 56%, our odds of losing must be 44% or .440, which subtracted from .509 will give us a figure of .069.
3. Take .069 and divide by .91 and you will get a figure of .075 or 7.5%, which we would round up to 8%, therefore 8% would be the recommended percentage of your bankroll to wager on each game.
The Kelly Criterion also can be used when your odds of winning are less than 50%, but the odds are in your favor so that over the long run such a situation should yield a profit. For example, take a baseball team that we estimate has a 40 percent chance of winning a game, but sees the favorite installed as -180 (risking $180 to win a $100) and the underdog listed as +165 (risking $100 to win $165).
1. The first step is to take estimated odds of winning (40%) and multiply by the given odds of +165, so our first set of numbers shows .40 * 1.65 = .660.
2. Next, we take our probability of losing, which we have estimated to be 60% or .600 and subtract that from .660 and get .060.
3. The final step is to take our number from the second step (.060) and multiply by the odds on the game (of 1.65) and we get .060 * 1.65 = .099, which we would round up to .10 or 10%. Therefore, the suggested betting size in this situation would be 10% our bankroll.
For straight 11/10 wagers, the following table shows the recommended bet size per the Kelly Criterion. The figures in the left column are what we guess our winning percentages will be, while the number to the right is the Kelly Criterion's recommended percentage of our bankroll to wager on the event.
If we estimate our winning percentage in football betting is going to be 54%, the Kelly Criterion would have us wager 3.40% of our bankroll on every play. If we believe we will hit 57% winners, the Kelly Criterion has us betting 9.70% of our bankroll on each play.
Problem No. 1 With the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion isn’t without its flaws, however, and is seldom used in its original form. Instead, a variation of the method is used by most successful sports bettors.
The first problem with the system is that most sports bettors tend to overestimate their expected winning percentage and therefore would be betting more than they should on each game, which lowers the probabilities of having a success season.
While some bettors may scoff at the 56% figure used in as an example earlier, professional bettors will be the first to tell you there’s nothing wrong with that percentage at all. Such a percentage will lead to a nice profit over time.
Many bettors assume they are going to achieve the magical figure of 60% winners, if not higher, when heading into a new season. While such a percentage may be achieved over a short period of time, it’s nearly impossible to maintain over a long stretch.
Professional bettor Steve Fezzik describes the 60% fallacy in Larry Grossman’s book, You Can Bet on It Fezzik states if you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.
Problem No. 2 With the Kelly Criterion
The biggest drawback to the Kelly Criterion is since it was devised for horse racing, it is equipped to handle one wager at a given time. With Kelly’s system a wager would be made on a race and the results would be known before placing another bet. That would give the bettor time to recalculate his bankroll before placing the bet.
That is seldom the case in sports betting, where it isn’t unusual to have a number of wagers taking place at the same time. Anybody using the basic Kelly system could easily have their entire bankroll in play on any given day, which is one of the quickest methods of going broke.
There are generally two types of sports bettors. There are those who are very selective and may only wager on several games per day or there are those who use what I call the “Wal-Mart” approach and bet many games per day with the hope of grinding out a small profit. Over time, they hope those small profits add up to healthy financial returns.
Obviously a bettor making three bets on a Saturday can afford to play a larger percentage of their bankroll on each play than a person making 15 bets, so the ultimate money management system will have to factor in the number of games wagered on when deciding the ideal bet size.
Professional sports bettor Bob McCune constantly stated that he wagered 2% of his bankroll on each play, but he was the prototypical Wal-Mart bettor and would have numerous plays, as long as he thought he had an advantage over the bookmaker.
The late Mike Lee, who for years ran a very successful sports serve and was considered one of the top technical handicappers of his day, was more selective in the number of games he would release to his clients, and therefore would recommend wagering 8% of one’s bankroll of his best bets, and a slightly lower percentage on other games.
The Ultimate Money Management System
In creating the ideal money management system, it became rather obvious that it would have to have a safeguard for the Wal-Mart bettors, but at the same time, not hamper the bettor who is more comfortable making two or three bets per day by having them wager too little on each game to reach maximum profits.
We will use 4% of our bankroll as our base figure, but then subtract .1% from our bet size for every additional wager we make after our first bet of the day. (If we wager on just one game for the day, our bet size will be 4% of our bankroll.) For example, if we are going to make five bets for the day, our bet size would be 3.6% of our bankroll (4% - .4%) and if we are going to make 11 bets on the day our wagers would become 3% of our bankroll on each play (4% - 1%).
It’s important to stress when using this method all of our wagers for the day will be the same size, as we only recalculate our wagering amount once per day. Using a calculator, this can be done in a matter of seconds, so that we can spend more time handicapping games or shopping for the best lines.
What we are essentially doing is using the half-Kelly method, but adding an element that takes the number of games bet into consideration.
Those who have access to an online sports book will have no problem following the method exactly as described, as online books are just as willing to accept a bet for $106.45 as they are to accept a $110 wager, while those using private bookies are likely to have to make some minor adjustments to their bet size so that it is an even amount.
Using this money management method doesn’t assure a sports bettor of huge riches, but it is the first step in having a profitable season.
Hedging and Scalping Your Bets
One of the biggest mistakes many novice sports bettors make relates to hedging and scalping their bets. While the bettor does guarantee themselves a profit regardless of which team wins, all they are really doing is minimizing their profits most of the time.
The biggest misuse of hedging and scalping comes in the form of a series bet, such as the team to win a playoff series, or to win a championship.
We'll use the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs as an example, and look at the New Jersey vs. Carolina series.
The Devils went off as a -115 favorite to win the series, while the Hurricanes were -105 to win the best-of-7 game match-up. After the Devils won the first game, the adjusted series price became New Jersey -220, Carolina +180.
For those who bet on the Devils -115, the opportunity to turn around and wager on Carolina +180 may seem like a good deal. If they wagered $230 to win $200 at the start of the series, they could now wager on Carolina +180 and be guaranteed to make money.
The ideal situation would be to wager $150 to the Hurricanes and the bettor will come away with an $50 profit if the Devils win, as they would win the original $200 bet and lose the $150. If the Hurricanes come back and win the series, the bettor would win $270 on the Hurricanes and lose $230 on the original Devils bet for a profit of $40.
What the bettor fails to realize, is that they are much better off in the long run sticking with the original bet on New Jersey and riding out the Devils in the series. The bettor now has a -220 favorite at -115, which is a huge overlay and will yield a healthy profit in the long run.
Planning to Hedge
Many bettors will make a series bet with the intent of betting the other way depending on what happens, but while this may seem like a smart move, it too, eats into profits and yields a lower return on investment.
In our example above, a bettor who planned on buying back the Devils bet after the first game would have been better off risking $70 to win $50 on New Jersey to win the first game. The bettor's money would not be tied up nearly as long and there is much less being wagered to return a similar amount.
There are times when buying back a portion, or all, of your bet makes sense, especially when you have high odds in your favor. For example, if you bet $100 on Team A at +5000 to win the Super Bowl, you should certainly hedge your wager enough to guarantee a profit of at least $1,000.
Injuries during a series are another time when it might make sense, but for the most part, sports gamblers would be better off ignoring hedging and scalping opportunities and stick with their original wagers. The bettor obviously thought the team was worth a wager in the first place and now betting against them doesn't make much sense.
Football Futures
The Futures bet that gets the most action each year is the wager on which team will win the Superbowl. Other popular bets include who will win the division or conference championship and how many regular seasons wins a team will have.
The odds for a NFL team winning the Superbowl are usually posted shortly after the NFL holds their annual draft in the Spring. These odds for may change from the opening line as the start of the regular season approaches. Draft choices, coaching changes, free-agent signings, trades and returning starters all impact a team's ability win. If there is an injury to a key starter or blockbuster trade during the pre-season you will see the line adjusted for several of the futures bets. Any major change will not only effect the odds for a team winning the Superbowl, but can also change the odds on the conference title or change the number of games a team will win during the season.
The Odds and Money Line
The odds for the Futures bet on a conference championship game, or the Superbowl may be listed as a ratio such as 6 to 1 but when you place a wager you will be betting the money line. The money line odds are listed with an amount relative to a $100 bet with either a plus or minus sign. For example the odds of the Dallas Cowboys winning the Superbowl might be listed as 6 to 1 but when you go to the sports book to place a wager, you see the money line listed as +600. This means that if you bet that the Cowboys will win the Superbowl you are wagering $100 to win $600. You can make a wager of less than $100 and it will be adjusted to those odds.
The money line is used for all of the other Futures bets as well The total number of games a team will win during the regular season will be listed with the over or under the total number of wins expected but the odds may be different depending on which way you bet. For example the total number of games that the Indianapolis Colts are expected to win in the 2008 season is 11. The betting line is: Over 11 games +130
Under 11 games - 170
If you think the Colts will win over 11 games you would wager $100 to win $130. If you bet them to win under 11 games you would have wager $170 to win $100. In this case the Colts are “favored” to win less than 11 games.
Futures Betting Tips
Wagering on a Futures bet is tricky because so much can happen during the year that can affect a team. The most notable is an injury to a key player but sometimes the overall chemistry of the team may be different due to coaching of other changes made during the off season.
Before you make your wager you have to determine the true value of the bet compared to the oddsmaker’s projected line. Some bets are not worth the making if a team is a heavy favorite because the return on investment is so small. A perfect example of this is a wager on the New England Patriots to win the AFC East title. They have won the division year after year and for the 2008 season they are listed as -1000 which means you have risk $1,000 to win $100. This bet is not a good value and you would be stay away from any team that is a heavy favorite.
If you want to make a Futures bet on the total number of regular season wins a team will have you should look at teams that were in the middle last year or teams near the bottom. Each year there are Cinderella stories in the NFL and looking at the less popular teams can be profitable. Did a losing team make trades or pick up players who can help them win if so they might be a better value than a powerhouse team from last season that will be favored to win a higher number of games.
Making a Futures wager on any team or sporting event all comes down to finding value. If it is not there, then do not make the bet.
The Point Spread
Many people think that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory by which one team will beat another team but this is not true. The line is the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. For this reason the line may change from the opening line to the line at game time.
When you bet on a game with the point spread your team does not necessarily have to win. You just need to cover the spread. If you bet on Miami who is favored to win by 7 and they only win by 4 you lose. If you bet Chicago who is a 10 point underdog and they only lose by 3 points then you win.
Over/Under
You can also choose the over or the under for the game total. The over or the under is a wager on the total score at the end of the game. You add the scores of both teams to get the final number. When you bet the under you are betting that the score will be under the total. When you bet the over you are betting the score will be higher than the total. For Example the final score of the game is: Colts 32 and Giants 17. The total of the game is 49. You win if you bet over and the score was more than 49 or if you bet under and the score was less than 49. If the score was exactly 49 then it would be a tie also called a push.
Parlay
A Parlay bet is a single bet that links together the outcome of more than one game or event. The parlay can be comprised of a series of bets on a team, over/under bets, or any mixture of the two. For the parlay to be a winning wager, every one of its individual plays must win. If any of the individual bets is not a winner, then the entire parlay wager loses.
The payout for a parlay bet varies with the number of wagers in the parlay. A two team parlay usually pays 13 to 5 and a three team pays 6 to 1. Some sports books and bookmakers offer slightly or higher payouts on parlays so you should always shop around for the best payouts.
Parlay bets are attractive because the bet is low and the payoff is high. However you have to pick multiple winners to be successful. It might be to your advantage to pick several games straight up instead of linking them together.
Teasers
A Teaser is one wager consisting of 2 or more propositions in which you are allowed to adjust the point spread in your favor. For example in a two team football teaser you can add or subtract 6, 6 ½ or 7 points to the point spread of each team. Most Teasers are even money bets.
For example: You want to bet the Colts and Miami in a teaser. The Colts are 7.5 favorites over the Jets and Miami is a 3.5 underdog to New England. Taking them in a 6 point teaser the point spread for the bet is: Colts – 1.5 (subtract 6 from 7.5) and Miami + 9.5 (add 6 to 3.5).
Sports Betting - How to Bet Parlays
Parlays are by far the most popular of the exotic wagers, as they offer the potential for a big payoff from a small wager. Simply stated, a parlay is a collection of two or more teams that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to win your bet. If you place a four team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. All of your bets must win, or at least tie, for you to win.
There are basic types of parlays, those wagered against the point spread and those wagered against the money line. The payoffs a bettor will receive should they win are quite different in the two. In parlays involving point spreads, the payoff are fixed, while money line parlay payoffs are determined by the odds of each team.
Point Spread Parlays
The odds on a typical parlay involving point spreads, including totals, are generally something like:
2 teams 13-5
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 25-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 75-1
8 teams 150-1
9 teams 300-1
10 teams 600-1
What this means is that a bettor making a wager on a five-team parlay stands to win $25 for every $1 if all of the games win. That is the primary reason parlays are popular with a number of sports bettors.
Money Line Parlays
Probably the least understood aspect of successful sports betting is related to money management. Money management is just as important as handicapping when it comes to having a profitable season. Sheer odds will dictate that everybody will pick winning teams on occasion, but not everybody knows how to manage their money in a manner that will maximize profits or minimize losses.
The first ingredient to proper money management is to establish a fund strictly for wagering. More commonly referred to a bankroll, this fund should be money that you can afford to lose, and should not consist of the rent payment or your kid’s college tuition. If you can’t afford to lose, you have no business betting. It’s as simple as that. Wait until your financial situation improves to the point where you can afford to lose a bit of cash and jump in at that point. The NFL, Major League Baseball, or the NBA aren’t going anywhere and will still be around for you to wager on, whether if it’s next week or next year.
Once your bankroll is firmly established, you’re ready to begin planning your assault on the bookmaker and your first step is determining the amount of your wagers. The method favored by most sophisticated gamblers involves wagering a percentage of your bankroll on each bet. This method is more commonly known as the Kelly Criterion and nearly all successful money management plans will use some type of variation of Mr. Kelly’s work.
Kelly Criterion
In 1956, the Kelly Criterion was developed by Edward L. Kelly, a physicist with AT&T Bell Laboratories. Kelly’s original concept was developed for betting on thoroughbred horse racing, but is applicable to all types of gambling, including the stock market and blackjack.
Kelly’s method is a mathematical formula that gives the percentage of bankroll to be wagered on an event to maximize profits, based on the odds and the probability of winning the bet. The formula looks more complex than it actually is and can be stated in three simple steps.
1. Multiply the odds of the event by the probability of winning.
2. Subtract the probability of losing from the number obtained in the first step.
3. Take the number obtained in the second step and divide by the odds.
For demonstrative purposes, let’s assume we are a football bettor who has a 56% winning percentage over time and is comfortable using that figure as the expected winning probability for future bets.
1. The first step is to take our 56% and multiply it by 11/10, the odds we give on a football bet, so we get .56 * .91 = .509.
2. Since our odds of winning are 56%, our odds of losing must be 44% or .440, which subtracted from .509 will give us a figure of .069.
3. Take .069 and divide by .91 and you will get a figure of .075 or 7.5%, which we would round up to 8%, therefore 8% would be the recommended percentage of your bankroll to wager on each game.
The Kelly Criterion also can be used when your odds of winning are less than 50%, but the odds are in your favor so that over the long run such a situation should yield a profit. For example, take a baseball team that we estimate has a 40 percent chance of winning a game, but sees the favorite installed as -180 (risking $180 to win a $100) and the underdog listed as +165 (risking $100 to win $165).
1. The first step is to take estimated odds of winning (40%) and multiply by the given odds of +165, so our first set of numbers shows .40 * 1.65 = .660.
2. Next, we take our probability of losing, which we have estimated to be 60% or .600 and subtract that from .660 and get .060.
3. The final step is to take our number from the second step (.060) and multiply by the odds on the game (of 1.65) and we get .060 * 1.65 = .099, which we would round up to .10 or 10%. Therefore, the suggested betting size in this situation would be 10% our bankroll.
For straight 11/10 wagers, the following table shows the recommended bet size per the Kelly Criterion. The figures in the left column are what we guess our winning percentages will be, while the number to the right is the Kelly Criterion's recommended percentage of our bankroll to wager on the event.
If we estimate our winning percentage in football betting is going to be 54%, the Kelly Criterion would have us wager 3.40% of our bankroll on every play. If we believe we will hit 57% winners, the Kelly Criterion has us betting 9.70% of our bankroll on each play.
Problem No. 1 With the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion isn’t without its flaws, however, and is seldom used in its original form. Instead, a variation of the method is used by most successful sports bettors.
The first problem with the system is that most sports bettors tend to overestimate their expected winning percentage and therefore would be betting more than they should on each game, which lowers the probabilities of having a success season.
While some bettors may scoff at the 56% figure used in as an example earlier, professional bettors will be the first to tell you there’s nothing wrong with that percentage at all. Such a percentage will lead to a nice profit over time.
Many bettors assume they are going to achieve the magical figure of 60% winners, if not higher, when heading into a new season. While such a percentage may be achieved over a short period of time, it’s nearly impossible to maintain over a long stretch.
Professional bettor Steve Fezzik describes the 60% fallacy in Larry Grossman’s book, You Can Bet on It Fezzik states if you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.
Problem No. 2 With the Kelly Criterion
The biggest drawback to the Kelly Criterion is since it was devised for horse racing, it is equipped to handle one wager at a given time. With Kelly’s system a wager would be made on a race and the results would be known before placing another bet. That would give the bettor time to recalculate his bankroll before placing the bet.
That is seldom the case in sports betting, where it isn’t unusual to have a number of wagers taking place at the same time. Anybody using the basic Kelly system could easily have their entire bankroll in play on any given day, which is one of the quickest methods of going broke.
There are generally two types of sports bettors. There are those who are very selective and may only wager on several games per day or there are those who use what I call the “Wal-Mart” approach and bet many games per day with the hope of grinding out a small profit. Over time, they hope those small profits add up to healthy financial returns.
Obviously a bettor making three bets on a Saturday can afford to play a larger percentage of their bankroll on each play than a person making 15 bets, so the ultimate money management system will have to factor in the number of games wagered on when deciding the ideal bet size.
Professional sports bettor Bob McCune constantly stated that he wagered 2% of his bankroll on each play, but he was the prototypical Wal-Mart bettor and would have numerous plays, as long as he thought he had an advantage over the bookmaker.
The late Mike Lee, who for years ran a very successful sports serve and was considered one of the top technical handicappers of his day, was more selective in the number of games he would release to his clients, and therefore would recommend wagering 8% of one’s bankroll of his best bets, and a slightly lower percentage on other games.
The Ultimate Money Management System
In creating the ideal money management system, it became rather obvious that it would have to have a safeguard for the Wal-Mart bettors, but at the same time, not hamper the bettor who is more comfortable making two or three bets per day by having them wager too little on each game to reach maximum profits.
We will use 4% of our bankroll as our base figure, but then subtract .1% from our bet size for every additional wager we make after our first bet of the day. (If we wager on just one game for the day, our bet size will be 4% of our bankroll.) For example, if we are going to make five bets for the day, our bet size would be 3.6% of our bankroll (4% - .4%) and if we are going to make 11 bets on the day our wagers would become 3% of our bankroll on each play (4% - 1%).
It’s important to stress when using this method all of our wagers for the day will be the same size, as we only recalculate our wagering amount once per day. Using a calculator, this can be done in a matter of seconds, so that we can spend more time handicapping games or shopping for the best lines.
What we are essentially doing is using the half-Kelly method, but adding an element that takes the number of games bet into consideration.
Those who have access to an online sports book will have no problem following the method exactly as described, as online books are just as willing to accept a bet for $106.45 as they are to accept a $110 wager, while those using private bookies are likely to have to make some minor adjustments to their bet size so that it is an even amount.
Using this money management method doesn’t assure a sports bettor of huge riches, but it is the first step in having a profitable season.
Hedging and Scalping Your Bets
One of the biggest mistakes many novice sports bettors make relates to hedging and scalping their bets. While the bettor does guarantee themselves a profit regardless of which team wins, all they are really doing is minimizing their profits most of the time.
The biggest misuse of hedging and scalping comes in the form of a series bet, such as the team to win a playoff series, or to win a championship.
We'll use the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs as an example, and look at the New Jersey vs. Carolina series.
The Devils went off as a -115 favorite to win the series, while the Hurricanes were -105 to win the best-of-7 game match-up. After the Devils won the first game, the adjusted series price became New Jersey -220, Carolina +180.
For those who bet on the Devils -115, the opportunity to turn around and wager on Carolina +180 may seem like a good deal. If they wagered $230 to win $200 at the start of the series, they could now wager on Carolina +180 and be guaranteed to make money.
The ideal situation would be to wager $150 to the Hurricanes and the bettor will come away with an $50 profit if the Devils win, as they would win the original $200 bet and lose the $150. If the Hurricanes come back and win the series, the bettor would win $270 on the Hurricanes and lose $230 on the original Devils bet for a profit of $40.
What the bettor fails to realize, is that they are much better off in the long run sticking with the original bet on New Jersey and riding out the Devils in the series. The bettor now has a -220 favorite at -115, which is a huge overlay and will yield a healthy profit in the long run.
Planning to Hedge
Many bettors will make a series bet with the intent of betting the other way depending on what happens, but while this may seem like a smart move, it too, eats into profits and yields a lower return on investment.
In our example above, a bettor who planned on buying back the Devils bet after the first game would have been better off risking $70 to win $50 on New Jersey to win the first game. The bettor's money would not be tied up nearly as long and there is much less being wagered to return a similar amount.
There are times when buying back a portion, or all, of your bet makes sense, especially when you have high odds in your favor. For example, if you bet $100 on Team A at +5000 to win the Super Bowl, you should certainly hedge your wager enough to guarantee a profit of at least $1,000.
Injuries during a series are another time when it might make sense, but for the most part, sports gamblers would be better off ignoring hedging and scalping opportunities and stick with their original wagers. The bettor obviously thought the team was worth a wager in the first place and now betting against them doesn't make much sense.
Football Futures
The Futures bet that gets the most action each year is the wager on which team will win the Superbowl. Other popular bets include who will win the division or conference championship and how many regular seasons wins a team will have.
The odds for a NFL team winning the Superbowl are usually posted shortly after the NFL holds their annual draft in the Spring. These odds for may change from the opening line as the start of the regular season approaches. Draft choices, coaching changes, free-agent signings, trades and returning starters all impact a team's ability win. If there is an injury to a key starter or blockbuster trade during the pre-season you will see the line adjusted for several of the futures bets. Any major change will not only effect the odds for a team winning the Superbowl, but can also change the odds on the conference title or change the number of games a team will win during the season.
The Odds and Money Line
The odds for the Futures bet on a conference championship game, or the Superbowl may be listed as a ratio such as 6 to 1 but when you place a wager you will be betting the money line. The money line odds are listed with an amount relative to a $100 bet with either a plus or minus sign. For example the odds of the Dallas Cowboys winning the Superbowl might be listed as 6 to 1 but when you go to the sports book to place a wager, you see the money line listed as +600. This means that if you bet that the Cowboys will win the Superbowl you are wagering $100 to win $600. You can make a wager of less than $100 and it will be adjusted to those odds.
The money line is used for all of the other Futures bets as well The total number of games a team will win during the regular season will be listed with the over or under the total number of wins expected but the odds may be different depending on which way you bet. For example the total number of games that the Indianapolis Colts are expected to win in the 2008 season is 11. The betting line is: Over 11 games +130
Under 11 games - 170
If you think the Colts will win over 11 games you would wager $100 to win $130. If you bet them to win under 11 games you would have wager $170 to win $100. In this case the Colts are “favored” to win less than 11 games.
Futures Betting Tips
Wagering on a Futures bet is tricky because so much can happen during the year that can affect a team. The most notable is an injury to a key player but sometimes the overall chemistry of the team may be different due to coaching of other changes made during the off season.
Before you make your wager you have to determine the true value of the bet compared to the oddsmaker’s projected line. Some bets are not worth the making if a team is a heavy favorite because the return on investment is so small. A perfect example of this is a wager on the New England Patriots to win the AFC East title. They have won the division year after year and for the 2008 season they are listed as -1000 which means you have risk $1,000 to win $100. This bet is not a good value and you would be stay away from any team that is a heavy favorite.
If you want to make a Futures bet on the total number of regular season wins a team will have you should look at teams that were in the middle last year or teams near the bottom. Each year there are Cinderella stories in the NFL and looking at the less popular teams can be profitable. Did a losing team make trades or pick up players who can help them win if so they might be a better value than a powerhouse team from last season that will be favored to win a higher number of games.
Making a Futures wager on any team or sporting event all comes down to finding value. If it is not there, then do not make the bet.
The Point Spread
Many people think that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory by which one team will beat another team but this is not true. The line is the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. For this reason the line may change from the opening line to the line at game time.
When you bet on a game with the point spread your team does not necessarily have to win. You just need to cover the spread. If you bet on Miami who is favored to win by 7 and they only win by 4 you lose. If you bet Chicago who is a 10 point underdog and they only lose by 3 points then you win.
Over/Under
You can also choose the over or the under for the game total. The over or the under is a wager on the total score at the end of the game. You add the scores of both teams to get the final number. When you bet the under you are betting that the score will be under the total. When you bet the over you are betting the score will be higher than the total. For Example the final score of the game is: Colts 32 and Giants 17. The total of the game is 49. You win if you bet over and the score was more than 49 or if you bet under and the score was less than 49. If the score was exactly 49 then it would be a tie also called a push.
Parlay
A Parlay bet is a single bet that links together the outcome of more than one game or event. The parlay can be comprised of a series of bets on a team, over/under bets, or any mixture of the two. For the parlay to be a winning wager, every one of its individual plays must win. If any of the individual bets is not a winner, then the entire parlay wager loses.
The payout for a parlay bet varies with the number of wagers in the parlay. A two team parlay usually pays 13 to 5 and a three team pays 6 to 1. Some sports books and bookmakers offer slightly or higher payouts on parlays so you should always shop around for the best payouts.
Parlay bets are attractive because the bet is low and the payoff is high. However you have to pick multiple winners to be successful. It might be to your advantage to pick several games straight up instead of linking them together.
Teasers
A Teaser is one wager consisting of 2 or more propositions in which you are allowed to adjust the point spread in your favor. For example in a two team football teaser you can add or subtract 6, 6 ½ or 7 points to the point spread of each team. Most Teasers are even money bets.
For example: You want to bet the Colts and Miami in a teaser. The Colts are 7.5 favorites over the Jets and Miami is a 3.5 underdog to New England. Taking them in a 6 point teaser the point spread for the bet is: Colts – 1.5 (subtract 6 from 7.5) and Miami + 9.5 (add 6 to 3.5).
Sports Betting - How to Bet Parlays
Parlays are by far the most popular of the exotic wagers, as they offer the potential for a big payoff from a small wager. Simply stated, a parlay is a collection of two or more teams that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to win your bet. If you place a four team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. All of your bets must win, or at least tie, for you to win.
There are basic types of parlays, those wagered against the point spread and those wagered against the money line. The payoffs a bettor will receive should they win are quite different in the two. In parlays involving point spreads, the payoff are fixed, while money line parlay payoffs are determined by the odds of each team.
Point Spread Parlays
The odds on a typical parlay involving point spreads, including totals, are generally something like:
2 teams 13-5
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 25-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 75-1
8 teams 150-1
9 teams 300-1
10 teams 600-1
What this means is that a bettor making a wager on a five-team parlay stands to win $25 for every $1 if all of the games win. That is the primary reason parlays are popular with a number of sports bettors.
Money Line Parlays
Money line parlays do not use fixed odds, because the odds of winning vary greatly from team to team. While a parlay made against the point spread assumes a 50-50 chance for each team of winning, money line parlays do not. The chances of the New York Yankees defeating Kansas City are greater than 50-percent, and as a result, money line parlays are figured differently.
To put it in simple terms, money line parlays take the amount of your bet and place all of the money on one team and if that team wins,recalculates your bet amount on the next team, again placing your entire wager on that team.
For example, say a bettor likes the Los Angeles Dodgers +160 and the Chicago Cubs -130. If the bettor places a $10 wager, they essentially would have a $10 bet on the Dodgers +160, which will return $26 should the Dodgers win, and then would have $26 on the Cubs -130. Should the Cubs also win, the bettor has turned a $10 wager into $46. Contrast the $36 profit with the $26 profit a bettor winning a $10 point spread parlay on two teams would make. The difference in the payoff is because the Dodgers were not given very good odds of winning.
Are Parlays Good Bets?
To put it in simple terms, money line parlays take the amount of your bet and place all of the money on one team and if that team wins,recalculates your bet amount on the next team, again placing your entire wager on that team.
For example, say a bettor likes the Los Angeles Dodgers +160 and the Chicago Cubs -130. If the bettor places a $10 wager, they essentially would have a $10 bet on the Dodgers +160, which will return $26 should the Dodgers win, and then would have $26 on the Cubs -130. Should the Cubs also win, the bettor has turned a $10 wager into $46. Contrast the $36 profit with the $26 profit a bettor winning a $10 point spread parlay on two teams would make. The difference in the payoff is because the Dodgers were not given very good odds of winning.
Are Parlays Good Bets?
The simple answer is no, especially parlays involving point spreads or totals. The odds of the payoff are much less than the true odds. For example, the true odds of winning a three-team parlay when making point spread wagers are 7-1, while the payoff is only 6-1, and it gets worse as you bet more teams. The true odds of hitting a 10-team point parlay are 1,023-1, while the payoff is generally around 600-1, so a parlay bettor is at a big disadvantage.
Bettors should stick with straight bets, as it's difficult enough to pick one winner, let alone two or more games.
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